The First 'Future Energy Trade and Consumption' Salon Successfully Held in Beijing: In-Depth Discussions on Oil Supply-Demand Dynamics and Natural Gas Transition Trends

On September 19, 2025 — ECP joint with the Institute of Energy at Peking University and the Beijing International Energy Experts Club, launched and hosted the inaugural session of the "Future Energy Trade and Consumption" series salon at the Four Seasons Courtyard of Peking University's Centennial Memorial Hall. This event invited Mr. Zhu Xinlei, President of Rystad Energy China, to deliver a keynote speech titled "Analysis and Outlook on the Global Oil and Gas Market Under the New Geopolitical Landscape and Energy Transition Context."

Nearly 50 guests from government, business, and research institutions actively participated in the event. Attendees included representatives from ConocoPhillips China, Cheniere Energy, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute, Beijing Gas Group, ENN Natural Gas, Shanghai Oil and Gas Trading Center, Sinochem Energy, China Water Conservance and Electric Power Quality Management Association, China Information Association, China Center for International Economic Exchanges, the Oil and Gas Department of the National Energy Administration, the Commercial Section of the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, and the U.S. Department of Energy's China Office.

Nearly 50 guests from government, business, and research institutions actively participated in the event. Attendees included representatives from ConocoPhillips China, Cheniere Energy, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute, Beijing Gas Group, ENN Natural Gas, Shanghai Oil and Gas Trading Center, Sinochem Energy, China Water Conservance and Electric Power Quality Management Association, China Information Association, China Center for International Economic Exchanges, the Oil and Gas Department of the National Energy Administration, the Commercial Section of the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, and the U.S. Department of Energy's China Office.

Experts and participants engaged in in-depth discussions on topics including global oil and gas supply and demand dynamics, energy transition pathways, and geopolitical variables. Deep analyses and insights were shared regarding the structural evolution of oil demand and supply rigidity, oil price outlooks and the strategic evolution of OPEC+, as well as the natural gas transition and domestic supply-demand balance in China.

The meeting summarized several core opinions: The impact of electrification on oil demand exhibits a significant "time lag" — while the full electrification of transportation will lead to a reduction in oil demand from global land-based transport, demand from aviation, shipping, and petrochemicals will sustain a high plateau period (2030–2040), meaning the upstream investment window remains open. The oil and gas market is shifting from being driven solely by price to being increasingly influenced by a combination of geopolitical, policy, and technological factors. The role of natural gas as a transition fuel is strengthening, but regional divergence is becoming more pronounced.

Participants agreed that the global energy market is entering a period of deep adjustment. Close attention needs to be paid to the sustainability of upstream investment, geopolitical risks, and China's unique role in market stabilization. The salon provided a high-quality platform for industry exchange and offers valuable reference points for future policy and strategic decision-making.